Semiconductor shortages

Currently we have been hearing a lot about the shortage of semiconductors. According to many reports, supply does not have the capacity to meet the high demand expected from various sectors.

The latest forecast for semiconductor shortages has worsened in recent days. As a result, it is now expected that recovery will not begin until 2023. By that time, production capacity is expected to have increased to match demand in the face of semiconductor shortages.

As we know the stock market normally tends to anticipate what is happening and that is reflected in the trading prices. Having said that, we can see below that the semiconductor index has had a drop of practically - 17%; approximately from the highs reached this year.

We cannot be sure that the negative effect on the sector is fully discounted. However, we can see that the oversold level has been reached and we are starting to see small signs of recovery; at least from a technical point of view. When we mention that the fall may not be over, we take into account that we have detected a significant increase in the amount of CALL option buying on a leveraged ETF that pays three times the yield. inverse of the index. These signals indicate that sentiment on the part of large investor hands considers that there could be an even larger correction.